We did see a similar trend here in Boulder County where 254 homes sold this November, compared to 212 during the same month last year, according to the Colorado Association of Realtors.
But I'm not getting too excited yet .
Locally, October was quite the opposite. October saw just 249 sales in the county, compared to 319 last year. Boulder County is small enough that month-to-month comparisons are volatile.
And the fall months tend to be most volatile and, thus, tell us less about the future. There's simply very little information in autumn housing sales numbers.
So, I will be watching to see how the market does after mid-to late-winter when it picks up just a little. It's the period that often tells much about existing home sales for the busiest part of the year.
Which brings me to another observation.
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| New homes will probably help improve inventory in 2017 |
Indeed, there have been several recent articles predicting the 2017 housing market will look much like one in 2016.
Sounds like "complacency" to me, which is usually wrong, if only because things rarely stay the same for long. And "long" accurately describes our currently lethargic housing market.
So it may be time to expect a change.
With upheaval in Washington DC, an aging economic expansion, resistance to new construction in many areas, potentially rising mortgage rates, etc., etc. etc; it could go either way.
If I had to make a guess, I would suggest 2017 is a likely time for inventory to improve, leading the way to a more balanced market.
As you know, inventory of existing homes has been very low, partly because owners have been staying in homes longer. But the longer people stay in homes, the less those homes really meet their needs.
Lives change.
Discomfort leads to selling. Families grow or shrink as babies are born or children become adults. Owners need more space to start home businesses, or less when moving a businesses out. Hobbies often require studio or work area. Job changes spark moves. Perhaps our aging population is a factor. Older folks tend to settle in, until the once comfortable older home gets too big to care for.
While discomfort may result in more existing homes for sale, builders are building, and have been for a while.
Despite what we hear from the experts, I suspect builders are over-building, much like oil drillers over-drill. There's always an oil shortage until there's an unexpected excess.
Prognosticators rarely predict middle ground.
It's occurs. But the middle is boring and the pendulum often swings through it before so-called experts notice.
So it is very possible 2017 will finally balance supply and demand in housing, bringing rising home prices under control, and making it easier for home-seekers to buy.
A transition year would be a relief. My fingers are crossed.
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Ron Rovtar, is a broker associate at The K Company Realty in Boulder, CO. Please call Ron with all your questions. Call him at 303.981.1617. To learn more about Ron, please visit his website. For more about life in Boulder County and nearby, check out our facebook page. Ron Rovtar does business as Front Range Real Estate, Ltd.
