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| Downtown Boulder |
Putting one's finger on exactly what these changes will mean for the city is more than a little difficult. But given current trends it seems that decisions made in the coming months will have much to say about what Boulder will look like for decades to come.
So understanding what we can about these changes is exceedingly important as Boulder City Council struggles with land use issues, development pressures and a lack of affordable and middle-income housing.
The city is under enormous pressure to make critical decisions about these hot-button issues. But the city seems frozen in its tracks by a dilemma that will not easily be resolved.
On the one hand, an historic approach favoring limited development is now producing potentially disturbing negative consequences. At the same time, limiting development is so ingrained in the collective Boulder identity that fiddling with this tradition seems almost sacrilegious to many.
Yet doing nothing could be the least beneficial long-term option.
This is where a largely overlooked report published on the Boulder Housing Partner's website might help. Sometimes a hard look at the numbers can be very enlightening.
The report, compiled and copyrighted by consultant cbzLLC, makes it clear that, as a group, Boulder homeowners are getting older and wealthier.
It also makes it clear the city cannot now house many hard-working employees who commute to Boulder from elsewhere. We can assume many of these teachers, police officers, clerks and others would live here were it financially feasible.
The cbzLLC report notes Boulder offers a robust job market with 93,749 jobs in 2010. More than half these jobs pay less than 61 percent of the area median income.
The report says nearly 56,500 non-residents commute into Boulder. An additional 37,533 live and work in Boulder. Just 13,400 Boulder residents commute to jobs outside the city.
Boulder is definitely a hub of regional employment activity.
Many inbound commuters come from nearby cities like Longmont, Louisville and Lafayette. But data shows that Boulder jobs are attracting commuters from a widening arc.
This is distressing for a city that takes pride in both its strong stance on reducing energy consumption and its reputation as an entrepreneurial center. All those cars coming into the city jointly create a huge carbon footprint.
Why do so few of those working in Boulder choose to live here? You probably know the answer. Boulder is a very desirable place to live. Like many coveted communities, Boulder's home prices keep rising, squeezing out those with more modest incomes.
And that appears to be exactly what in happening in Boulder. According to the cbzLLC report, numbers associated with Boulder's economic and age demographics appear to be rising.
Here are some conclusions of the report:
The number of owner-occupied households in Boulder grew by just 1.7 percent, from 19,373 in 2000 to 19,588 in 2012. It is safe to say the recession had something to do with this slow level of construction, but city growth restrictions certainly played a part.
During the same period, the number of owner-occupied homes valued less than $300,000 fell from 11,316 to 4,442, a 61 percent decline. At this rate, Boulder will lose about 573 affordable owner occupied units per year leaving no affordable units available by 2020, the report suggests. (Actually, home price inflation this year has been so robust that 2020 may be an optimistic projection.)
Also during the 2000 to 2012 period, the number of owner occupants ages 25 to 54 fell from 12,648 to 10,096 while the owner-occupant population 55 and over grew from 6,490 to 9,099, the report indicated.
Meanwhile, the number of owner households with income under $100,000 fell by 3,730 to 9,715, while the number with income of $100,000 and more jumped 3,515 to 9,658. Most of the increase occurred in the over $150,000 income range, which rose by 3,241.
The report also notes that between 2008 and 2012, condos accounted for 80 percent of home sales below $200,000; manufactured homes, 14 percent; and houses, a mere 6 percent.
Of all Boulder owner-occupied homes, 6,086 are owned by families with children, 6,637 are occupied by families without children and 6,650 are occupied by non-family owners.
Affordable rental units also may be evaporating. the report suggested.
Every year Boulder is losing 471 affordable rental units (those costing under $750 a month), the report suggested.
In 2012, there were just 7,729 apartments with rents below $1,000, according to the report. If Boulder's 34,000 low-wage workers and students double up, their need for affordable rentals would still be more than twice available supply the report observed.
One warning. This report cannot be considered statistically rigorous. Many comparisons are made between the 2000 U.S. Census Report and the 2012 American Community Survey. There almost certainly were variations in how data was collected by the two sources.
Also importantly, there appear to be no adjustments for inflation during comparison period. Inflation starting in 2000 and ending in 2012, a favorite comparison period in the report, was 33.3 percent, according to a calculator at the U.S, Bureau of Labor Statistics website.
And wages, especially in more moderate pay categories, do not always move in lockstep with consumer prices or with home prices.
So the price point at which a home should be considered "affordable" probably changed between 2000 and 2012. But it might be hard (if not impossible) to say how much.
And one would expect a rise in the number of households earning more than $100,000 during the 12-year period simply due to income inflation in this category.
Boulder Housing Partners (BHP), which is Boulder housing authority, published the report online along with a draft of its new strategic plan. BHP is asking for feedback about the plan. Both the report and draft can be downloaded at this page.
The cbzLLC report also credits the Colorado Dept. of Labor and Employment, and other sources for some data.
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Ron Rovtar, dba Front Range Real Estate, Ltd., is a broker associate in Boulder, CO. Please call Ron with all your questions. He can be reached at 303.981.1617. To learn more about Ron, please visit his website. For more about life in Boulder County and nearby, check out our facebook page.
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